MLS Soccer: Houston Dynamo vs DC United

  • Thursday, April 16th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    MLS Odds: The Houston Dynamo picked up their second win of the 2015 season last weekend against the Montreal Impact, with a 3 - 0 win at home, to bring the club to 2 - 2 - 2 on the young season. However, it was their first win since opening day, but when you look at the statistics from the game, you would think that Montreal was the one who should have won the game. The Impact controlled possession for 2/3 of the match, took 10 corner kicks to Houston's one, and outshot the Dynamo in both attempts and official shots on goal.

    Houston keeper Tyler Deric came up big again, making five saves and keeping his third clean sheet of the year. As lopsided as the stats may be, the bottom line is that Houston found three points, has eight points in the middle of the Western Conference and are tied with defending champs in the standings.

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    We did see a change in the roster for Houston this week, when the Dynamo acquired midfielder Alex from the Chicago Fire in exchange for forward Jason Johnson. Alex will give them stability in the midfield, and can play any position on the field which will help during the season when Houston will lose players over the summer for international competitions.

    DC United remains at the top of the Eastern Conference with a 3 - 1 - 1 record through their first five matches of the season. They do, however, come off a disappointing result, after having a 2 - 0 lead against their longtime rivals, the New York Red Bulls.In that game, Perry Kitchen scored both goals that gave United the 2 - 0 lead, the first coming at the 26 minute mark, and the second coming at the 67 minute mark. As United was barely done celebrating their second goal, defenderDamien Perrinelle found the net on the 68 minute mark to pull New York to 2 - 1.

    While United was thought to have all three points in hand as time was winding down, Lloyd Sam struck for New York right on the 90 minute mark, and the two clubs had to settle for a point with a 2 - 2 draw.

    Last 10 MLS Meetings:

    Houston leads the recent series with 7 wins, 2 losses and a draw in the last 10 MLS meetings.

    1x2 3-Way Lines:

    Houston +310

    DC United -105

    Draw +250

    Handicap/Spread Odds:

    Houston +0.5 -115

    DC United -0.5 -105

    Total O/U 2.5:

    Over +110

    Under -130

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    Quick Analysis & Prediction

    Quick Analysis:

    Houston has certainly had the edge in the series, as we showed above in the ‘Last 10’ portion of this article that DC United only has two wins in the last 10 meetings. In fact, the Dynamo has an 11 - 3 - 2 record dating back to the 2009 season against United.

    History certainly plays a role when two teams face off against each other, but it does not always simply mean that Houston will have a cake walk in this match because they have played well against United in the past.

    The line setters do, however, point to a win for United at home this weekend, with a -105 on the 3-Way line, and Houston being listed at +310.

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    We know both goal keepers are tremendous, as Hamid and Deric are certainly among the best in the league, and we also see that the line setters expect this Under to come in, seeing -130 on the Under 2.5.

    Might that mean we can expect a draw here?

    There is always plenty of value in a draw, as we see the +225 on the action, but we also have the opportunity to play the +0.5 on Houston at a reasonable -115. With that said, the recommendation for this one goes towards that handicap +0.5 at -115 on the away side to find a way to continue to have United's number in the series.