Week 27 Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol

  • Wednesday, March 11th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Barcelona's decisive victory last weekend, matched with Real Madrid's defeat, reveals a new leader on top of the La Liga table. Lionel Messi continues to be a weekly highlight reel with another hat-trick to his credit in their 6 - 1 win over Vallecano, while the controversy continues to swirl about Carlo Ancelotti's job security in Madrid.

    It is amazing to think that a club that has scored 75 goals, sitting one point back of the top spot in the league, has a discussion about a manager possibly losing his job, but after one media outlet put it out there the story has caught fire.

    French National Zinedine Zidane’s name is being tossed around to replace Ancelotti, but we are not convinced that Ancelotti is going anywhere before the end of the campaign. If his job is in jeopardy for having this type of campaign, then whose job is safe around Europe? If they were told that they would have 75 goals and find themselves one point out of the top spot in the table, not one manager would say they wouldn't take that in a heartbeat, but yet the news and rumors are running amuck.

    Bet on La Liga at BetDSI

    The weekend's round startson Fridayand runs throughMonday. Our featured match of the weekend comeson Saturdayat Estadi Cornellà-El Prat, or Power8 Stadium if you will, with Espanyol hosting Atletico Madrid. Atletico still holds the third position in the table, but have not looked that great the last two times out, settling for draws, and not having much success finding the net.

    With four matcheson Sunday, and the usualMondaymatch in store, let's get prepared for what we might see this weekend.

    Friday, March 13- 1 Match

    Dep La Coruna vs Valencia

    3-Way: 1: Deportivo +850 Away ; X: +395 Draw ; 2: Valencia -275 Home

    Spread: Deportivo +1.5 -125 ; Valencia -1.5 +105

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Valencia remains one of the top home clubs in La Liga, with only one loss during this campaign at Mestalla. If recent form accounts for anything, Valencia has been playing better than anyone in La Liga right now.

    Deportivo took the first meeting between the two clubs in October at Riazor, and they come off a three-goal performance at Sevilla after being held to three-straight clean sheets, as we mentioned in last week's preview. They have also been held to clean sheets in 7 of their last 9 away matches, and with another loss this weekend, could find themselves in the bottom three of the table.

    We are suggesting the Under 2.5 here, since we expect a low-scoring match, with Deportivo continuing to struggle finding the net as usual.

    Saturday, March 14- 4 Matches

    Featured Match Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Atl Madrid +110

    Espanyol +285

    Draw +225


    Atl Madrid -0.5 +110

    Espanyol +0.5 -130

    Total 2:

    Over -115

    Under -105

    Bet on La Liga at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Espanyol was knocked out of the Copa Del Ray last week, and now has to regroup from the loss to Sociedad this past weekend to take on one of the elite in La Liga.Even though Atletico hasn't exactly been playing like a top 3 club lately, taking on Espanyol should give them the perfect opportunity to get back on track.Atletico seemed to have everything rolling after beating Real Madrid in the derby onFebruary 7, and have now only found one win since then, against lowly Almeria.

    Why the line setters decided to put a straight 2 on the total is a mystery that even Sherlock Holmes would struggle with solving. We get it that Atletico is sound defensively, but Espanyol certainly is not.Atletico will undoubtedly find both of those goals, and that is enough reasoning to suggest the Over 2 at a reasonable -115.

    Granada vs Rayo Vallecano

    3-Way: 1: Granada +330 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Vallecano -115 Home

    Spread: Granada +0.5 -105 ; Vallecano -0.5 -115

    Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    It was not just because Barcelona destroyed Vallecano last weekend, but it essentially comes down to how it all happened. Vallecano stood around looking more like fans that opposing competition, and they let Lionel Messi and company make them look like a second-rate club. Vallecano is about to give up their 50th goal of the campaign, because even a club like Granada will not struggle with scoring on this club.

    We might not suggest an under with Vallecano the rest of the year, as we thought they might have been able to contain Barca last weekend to hold that total of 4.5. That did not happen, so hopefully they look as lethargic as they did last weekend and we can throw some action on this Over 2.5 at a lovely +110 and expect 3 or more goals easily.

    Atheltic Bilbao vs Celta De Vigo

    3-Way: 1: Bilbao +275 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Vigo +110 Home

    Spread: Bilbao +0.5 -130 ; Vigo -0.5 +110

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Athletic Bilbao is now playing like the club who got themselves into European competition last season, and has not only reeled off three straight wins, but are also going to be playing Barcelona in the Copa Del Ray Final, after handling Espanyol in the semi's 10 days ago.

    Celta De Vigo had looked to be getting back on track, but they come off a 4 - 1 thrashing from Villarreal last weekend. With the way Bilbao has regrouped to be playing as well as they are right now, we suggest taking the handicap Pk Draw no Bet line on Bilbao at a lovely +160 or so, instead of laying the -130 on the +0.5.

    Barcelona vs Eibar

    3-Way: 1: Barcelona -635 Away ; X: +750 Draw ; 2: Eibar +1600 Home

    Spread: Barcelona -2 -145 ; Eibar +2 +125

    Total 3.5: Over +120 ; Under -140

    Bet on La Liga at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Stop us if you have heard this before: Fading Eibar is the best play in any league we cover around here, and they continue to cash our tickets week in and week out.Some sites state that Barcelona might be facing a struggle this weekend, overlooking a struggling club, and some outlets are using the infamous phrase 'trap game.'

    Naturally, we do not care who says what, or how other people come up with their analysis, because fading Eibar has continued to pay us and we are not about to stop recommending it yet. We will stop fading Eibar when they give us a reason to, and that hasn’t happened yet.

    Barcelona should be able to reproduce a performance of last weekend and, even with a B squad on the pitch, could knock Eibar for a loop. Move the Barca handicap to -2.5 to get closer to even money, and throw some lunch money on the Over 3.5 at +120 as well.

    Sunday, March 15- 4 Matches

    Cordoba vs Malaga

    3-Way: 1: Cordoba +600 Away ; X: +275 Draw ; 2: Malaga -175 Home

    Spread: Cordoba +1 -120 ; Malaga -1 +100

    Total 2: Over -145 ; Under +125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Cordoba joins Eibar as a club with no clue what they are doing. They have now lost 7 straight, and are more than likely headed for second tier at the end of the campaign. Malaga is winning this match 3 - 1, so play the -1 handicap on the home side, and move this total up to the 2 and 2.5 at least, to get closer to even money on the action. If you feel the need, move the total to the Over 2.5 to give yourself an even more lovely +120 or so. No further analysis needed, because Cordoba is just a miserable club.

    Elche vs Sevilla

    3-Way: 1: Elche +800 Away ; X: +375 Draw ; 2: Sevilla -260 Home

    Spread: Elche +1 +135 ; Sevilla -1 -155

    Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100

    Bet on La Liga at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Elche hasn't beat a club in the upper half of the table the entire year, and even though Bilbao is one of the clubs Elche has beaten, they were not in the upper portion when they met at the time. Anyone who caught that Sevilla / Deportivo match last weekend is well aware that the 4 - 3 Sevilla win was not exactly impressive, and Deportivo actually deserved better, but again we say that some teams just find ways to lose and Deportivo is certainly one of those clubs.

    This is another Over waiting to happen, and -120 is nothing but $20 worth of acceptable juice to expect another up and down match that sees 3 or more goals, so grab the Over, and expect to cash the ticket.

    Levante vs Real Madrid

    3-Way: 1: Levante +2600 Away ; X: +1200 Draw ; 2: Madrid -1325 Home

    Spread: Levante +3 -115 ; Madrid -3 -105

    Total 4: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Once again, the confidence of Real Madrid took a hit this week. Even though they are moving on in Champions League, the 4 - 3 loss at home to Schalke and in the fashion they did it, gives the Spanish press that much more ammunition towards Ancelotti. It is still hard to imagine how everyone thinks Carlo Ancelotti is not deserving of keeping his job, despite the season this club has had this year.

    We jumped on Levante last weekend, because we knew Eibar had no shot of winning that match, and Levante is actually playing well enough to pull themselves out of the bottom three, be it by just a point as it is.

    Why this +3 on the handicap is sitting there is beyond us, because of the way Real is playing right now and with a club like Levante who is desperate to throw anything they have to give in this match.

    This may be a 4 - 2 type of match, because Levante will score, even though most offers on the both to score prop heavily favor the 'No' side of the action.That +3 on Levante is too tempting to leave off the board, simply because the pressure is on Madrid. Levante has to just play their game and keep Madrid frustrated for as long as they can.

    Villarreal vs Almeria

    3-Way: 1: Villarreal -105 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Almeria +300 Home

    Spread: Villarreal -0.5 -105 ; Almeria +0.5 -115

    Total 2.5: Over +105 ; Under -125

    Bet on La Liga at BetDSI

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Villarreal is going to score early and often, as Almeria is certainly not going to be able to slow down this club for 30 minutes, much less 90. This is another one of those spots we hope to catch the line setters sleeping, because seeing a -105 on Villa and a +105 on the total to go over is hysterical! Almeria hasn't scored a goal in three straight outings, and Villarreal shut them down 2 - 0 in the first meeting of the campaign. We expect a similar result, with Villa finding the net that third time to cash the over and the side for us.

    Monday, March 16- 1 Match

    Real Sociedad vs Getafe

    3-Way: 1: Sociedad +220 Away ; X: +220 Draw ; 2: Getafe +140 Home

    Spread: Sociedad Pk +125 ; Getafe Pk -145

    Total 2: Over -120 ; Under +100

    Analysis and Prediction:

    AnotherMondaymatch with plenty to not be interested in, but we are used to that by now.

    What the shocker was here was seeing a straight 2 offered on the total, because we expect a 2 - 2 type of match, with both likely to find the net, and we expect to cash an easy Over ticket.

    Taking Getafe Overs lately is the best ticket in town, and we hope to see yet another of them, as they have cashed 4 of the last 5 Overs. There is no reason to expect less than 2 here.

    View the latest La Liga Soccer Betting Odds @ Diamond Sportsbook