Week 26 Valencia vs Atletico Madrid

  • Thursday, March 5th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Barcelona and Real Madrid have been in a season long battle for top billing in La Liga, and now they are only separated by a mere two points. Madrid headman Carlo Ancelotti has supposedly received some kind of warning as to the club's recent performances, but that comes from a tabloid in Spain that loves to create controversy.

    The club sits in first place, is still alive in Champions League, and still has one of the most dominant trios in all of Spain, so we will simply call any Ancelotti news a rumor at best.

    Barcelona had a big Copa Del Ray matchon Wednesdaywith Villarreal, and cruised to a second 3 - 1 victory, the same result from the first meeting at Camp Nou. There are also rumors out of the Barca camp that Dani Alves is considering leaving at the end of the season and still seeking a contract past this year.

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    The weekend kicks offon Fridayand runs intoMondayas usual, with theFridaymatch testing the ability of Eibar to prove they belong in top flight. The club got off to a nice start, but has now fallen to within five points of the final relegation spot.

    Saturday, we have four matches on the slate, with both Sevilla and Real Madrid playing important away matches to maintain positions in the table. Sevilla is currently holding the only Europa League Group Stage spot, and sits seven points back of Valencia in 4th place.

    Our featured match of the weekend comeson Sundayat Calderón, with Atletico Madrid hosting Valencia. The two clubs sit only a point apart, and both need to not only find three points, but they also can't afford to give away any results. Valencia is certainly playing better out of the two, winners of four straight league matches, and in fact, only sit 8 points back of Real Madrid for the top spot in the table.

    The round comes to an endon Monday, with Getafe at Cordoba, so let's see what we can expect around the league this weekend.

    Friday, March 6- 1 Match

    Eibar v Levante

    3-Way: 1: Eibar +280 Away ; X: +220 Draw ; 2: Levante +115 Home

    Spread: Eibar +0.5 -135 ; Levante -0.5 +115

    Total 2: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Struggling is not even the best word we can use to describe what Eibar has gone through in the second half of the campaign. We have fortunately called their demise, and you have seen us give out plays against them time and again.

    Even though Levante has not exactly had much better success than that of Eibar, we cannot see Eibar as a threat right now. They have not even come close to finding the net in their last 4 outings, but that might turn around this weekend with Levante being unable to stop a soul this season.

    We are suggesting to continue fading Eibar until they prove otherwise. The +115 is more than reasonable on Levante in this spot, and we have absolutely zero confidence that Eibar snaps this string away from home.

    Saturday, March 7- 4 Matches

    Sevilla vs Dep La Coruna

    3-Way: 1: Sevilla +115 Away ; X: +250 Draw ; 2: Deportivo +245 Home

    Spread: Sevilla -0.5 +115 ; Deportivo +0.5 -135

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Deportivo is another club that has struggled finding the net, going three straight matches with a clean sheet held against them. Now they are just a few points away from ending up in a relegation battle, but luckily for them, Sevilla has struggled against inferior clubs recently, with losses to both Sociedad and Getafe in February.

    Deportivo has not beaten Sevilla since 2009 in league play, and lost the first meeting of the year 4 - 1 at Sevilla. Sevilla survived their Europa League tie with Moenchengladbach, and will continue on in that competition. They will face fellow Spanish-side Villarreal in the round of 16, with the away leg onMarch 12, and back in SevillaMarch 19for the second leg.

    Sevilla should be able to come out of Riazor with a big away win, so we expect them to take 3 points, leading us to the 3-Way line of +115 on the Red and Whites.

    Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao

    3-Way: 1: Madrid -225 Away ; X: +400 Draw ; 2: Bilbao +560 Home

    Spread: Madrid -1 -130 ; Bilbao +1 +110

    Total 3: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    If Bilbao did not have to play a mid-week Copa Del Ray match, we might have thought to give them a chance to hang around with Madrid.It is the second half of the match that will show the greatest concern for Bilbao, with tired legs trying to chase down a rested Madrid club who supposedly are making news concerning Ancelotti's job.

    Let us tell you this; Carlo Ancelotti will only leave Madrid if Carlo Ancelotti wants to leave. No one will be pushing him around, and no one will be firing him any time soon.

    We are suggesting this Over 3 at a reasonable -115, expecting Madrid to come out and open it up in the second half, and take advantage of the Bilbao tired legs.

    Almeria vs Elche

    3-Way: 1: Almeria +290 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Elche +105 Home

    Spread: Almeria +0.5 -125 ; Elche -0.5 +105

    Total 2: Over -125 ; Under +105

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Almeria will be without Bfouma in their mid-field and Michel on the back line, after both were sent off last weekend in their 0 - 0 match with Deportivo.

    The only difference between these two is the 6 goal differential, as they have both gone 6 - 6 - 13, and scored 22 goals on the year. That is what we call mirror image, and we expect them to play a similar match to what we saw the first time they met this campaign. It was 2 - 2 then, and it will most likely be 1 - 1 today, so the Draw call goes on the board at a lovely +230.

    Malaga vs Granada

    3-Way: 1: Malaga +165 Away ; X: +215 Draw ; 2: Granada +185 Home

    Spread: Malaga Pk -120 ; Granada Pk +100

    Total 2: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Malaga didn't exactly impress anyone in their 3 - 2 win over a Getafe side that has been terrible away from home all campaign. As you look over the stats from that match, the only difference is Malaga scored one more goal than Getafe. Obviously, that is all anyone needs to do to secure 3 points, and Malaga will need results as often as possible if they want to grab a spot in Europe next season.

    Granada has only scored 7 goals in their 12 home matches so far, but they should find some success at home this weekend.

    Even though the line setters do not expect them both to score, as we see at many sites in Europe the 'No' side of the prop bet is juiced pretty good. We do actually expect them both to score, and we hope it is how they cash this Over 2 ticket at -105.

    Sunday, March 8- 4 Matches

    Featured Match Valencia vs Atletico Madrid

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Valencia + 545

    Atletico -170

    Draw +290


    Valencia +1 -130

    Atletico -1 +110

    Total 2.5:

    Over +110

    Under -130

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Atletico beat Real on February 7, and has been putting out disappointing results ever since. That match last weekend with Sevilla was extremely tough to watch, and we all thought that Mandzukic and Griezmann had figured out how to work together after the Almeria match. Not so much, and they are now facing a Valencia club who has won four straight, and playing as well as anyone in the league.

    These two sit only a point apart in European contention, and Valencia has the confidence of knowing they did manage to beat Atletico in the first meeting at Mestalla.

    Even though the +1 on Valencia is -130, we really can't expect the line setters to just give the play away. It is where we will turn in this case, drinking the juice for one of the few times we have done so.

    Vallecano vs Barcelona

    3-Way: 1: Vallecano +2850 Away ; X: +1400 Draw ; 2: Barcelona -1750 Home

    Spread: Vallecano +3.5 +110 ; Barcelona -3.5 -130

    Total 4.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Barcelona looked impressive once again in the Copa Semi's against Villaon Wednesday, and they will now be playing Athletic Bilbao in the Cup Final. It is highly evident that the line setters see this as the most lopsided match we will find around Europe this weekend, much less in Spain, and it will really only come down to how bad Barcelona feels like stomping on Vallecano.

    Vallecano hasn't tasted victory against Barca since the 2002 season, although they were down in Segunda for a spell as well. They did manage to only lose 2 - 0 in the first meeting this year, and we just don't see why Barcelona would press non-stop to embarrass this club.

    We are suggesting the Under amazingly enough, because 4.5 is up there, and Barcelona would have to essentially score all 5 to cash an Over ticket.

    Celta De Vigo vs Villarreal

    3-Way: 1: Vigo +290 Away ; X: +265 Draw ; 2: Villarreal -105 Home

    Spread: Vigo +0.5 -115 ; Villarreal -0.5 -105

    Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    VIllarreal is now done with the Copa Del Ray after two 3 - 1 losses to Barcelona. The choice here will come down to if we want to expect a Villarreal win at -105, or if Celta can continue to play well and come out of here with some type of result.

    We will choose option B, and take the Celta +0.5 at -115, knowing they gave the ability to come here and play well. They have taken the last two decisions in this park, and a draw is all we need to cash this ticket.

    Espanyol vs Real Sociedad

    3-Way: 1: Espanyol +255 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Sociedad +120 Home

    Spread: Espanyol +0.5 -140 ; Sociedad -0.5 +120

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    If Sociedad doesn't find confidence after handing Sevilla a loss last weekend, than they will never have confidence at all.

    Espanyol comes off a loss in the CopaWednesday, and can now concentrate on the rest of the campaign.

    Sociedad has played well at home the entire campaign, and we are going to expect that they follow up the Sevilla win, with another win this weekend at +120 on the 3-Way line.

    Monday, March 9- 1 Match

    Getafe vs Cordoba

    3-Way: 1: Getafe +220 Away ; X: +205 Draw ; 2: Cordoba +150 Home

    Spread: Getafe Pk +115 ; Cordoba Pk -135

    Total 2: Over +105 ; Under -125

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Hey, what do you know, another terrible La Liga matchon Monday! We certainly can't buy in to anything Cordoba is selling right now, even if they want to offer +150 to test the water. Getafe may be horrible on the road, but is it worse than Cordoba is anywhere?

    The Getafe Pk at +115 is the only spot in this match where there is a semblance of value, as even if they draw, it won't matter a bit. Will someone please give us aMondaymatch worth watching?

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