Spain La Liga Week 37 Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

  • Thursday, May 14th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: The league, the clubs and the Spanish government are all in a battle for collective television rights, and the story is too well-winded to speak about all the issues involved. The amount of news that will now follow this story over the next two weeks of the campaign will be covered by every major football outfit that has La Liga interests.Of course, the affect on next season and beyond is also next to figure out, because this is not going away anytime soon.

    We assume if you are reading this article that you can search the web and find out every last detail on the situation on a day-by-day basis as it gets sorted out. So let's get back to the pitch, since we now know there will be players on it this weekend. However, there will be one other notable suspension you might have heard of taking place this week, when we preview the Real Madrid match with Espanyol.

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    Naturally, this suits Barcelona just fine, because they are at the head of some of these issues, but why wouldn't they be? We know what Real Madrid and Barcelona are involved with because every move they make is well documented.

    So, with a four-point lead and two matches left, it’s certainly obvious that a win at Atletico Madrid this weekend would wrap it up. They can play their last game at home against Deportivo and celebrate a championship if things go wrong this weekend, so they are likely happy to be in this spot.

    This match is, of course, our featured match of the round, as it is a top three battle in the table, and Atletico still has just a little work ahead of them with a four-point lead to maintain the three spot that comes with the final group stage entry in Champions League next campaign.

    Valencia let a golden opportunity go by last weekend. They had a 2 - 0 lead against Real only to settle for a draw. With all three clubs around them drawing as well, they washed away those extra two points they needed. They have a four-point margin to make up, while only a three point on Sevilla, so these last two matches will be huge for them.

    Let's cover the round and see what we can expect on the pitch this weekend in Spain.

    Sunday, May 17- All 10 Matches

    Featured Match Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Barcelona -135

    Atl Madrid +400

    Draw +275


    Barcelona -0.5 -135

    Atl Madrid +0.5 +115

    Total 2.5:

    Over -120

    Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    It's again one of those campaigns -- two clubs meet who have a necessity to take three points, with Champions League positions, and La Liga title implications and two matches to go.

    This weekend that comes at Vicente Calderón, as Atletico Madrid hosts the club they simply have trouble with. Let's not overlook that Barcelona has lost only once in the last 15 meetings to Atletico, although it did come in the second leg of their tie in Champions League last year, right here in this park.

    It is no mystery what these two are playing for, so let's not overstate it. Barcelona surely knows that Deportivo is on deck, and that is not to say they will overlook Atletico to say the least. Keep in mind, Barcelona has had two huge matches played against Bayern Munich the last two weeks in a little competition called Champions League, so Atletico is certainly the rested of the two.

    Maybe Atletico was looking ahead to the match, because they should not be coming off two draws against Levante and Bilbao if they are chasing European positions in the table.

    We are going against the grain here a bit and suggesting this Over 2.5 at -120. We know under normal circumstances, say a match earlier in the season, that Atletico would defend for 90 minutes and seem content to find the goal that wins a match with a 1 - 0 or 2 - 0 score line. How many times have we, in fact, recommended an Under this year with Atletico expecting just that? Plenty.

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    If they were indeed waiting for Barcelona to get here and decide to play football, then they won't be sitting back simply trying to let Barcelona predict the pace. That would be unacceptable to Diego Simeone on every level.

    We project this to be a 3 - 2 type of match, with plenty of back and forth and plenty of offensive talent all over this pitch. We all know what these defenses are capable of, because we have seen it all campaign. In case you missed it, these are the best two defenses officially in La Liga in goals allowed.

    With that said, there is nothing for these two to do but get into a bit of an offensive showdown, so the Over 2.5 is hopeful on the -120 action.

    Levante vs Dep La Coruna

    3-Way: 1: Levante +425 Away ; X: +265 Draw ; 2: Deportivo -135 Home

    Spread: Levante +0.5 +105 ; Deportivo -0.5 -135

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We just mentioned both clubs in the Atletico / Barca preview, as Levante comes off the 2 - 2 draw with Atletico last weekend, and Barcelona finished out the campaign at Camp Nou with Deportivo.

    We know how well Levante has played lately, although the 65 goals allowed probably doesn't give off the impression of a club considered playing well. Levante has likely done enough to avoid relegation. Remember we are talking about a club who had been in the bottom three at many points of the campaign, wondering if they were going to manage to stay in top flight often times.

    We are going to assume that they will each score, and the both to score prop is listed at -120 or so at most European sites. It makes sense when you have these two defenses on the pitch, so we will agree and offer the suggestion of the Over 2.5 at -115. Hopefully, we can avoid a similar result in the first meeting in which no one scored, ironically enough.

    Athletic Bilbao vs Elche

    3-Way: 1: Bilbao +120 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Elche +255 Home

    Spread: Bilbao -0.5 +120 ; Elche +0.5 -140

    Total 2.5: Over +120 ; Under -140

    Analysis and Prediction:

    With Bilbao's draw with Deportivo last weekend, their hopes of Europe went with the result, because they are now officially out of the race. We do have to somewhat applaud their efforts to get back in the conversation at least, and we all did take advantage of that run they went on in the second half of the campaign.

    Elche is obviously just finishing the term, managing to have a 2015-16 plan in top flight next season, so there is nothing to gain or lose, other than 12th place in the table at best. Bllbao still has a 5-match stretch with no losses, but the settling for draws in their last three outings is what did them in. What is wrong with also expecting some goal scoring here?

    Elche played pretty well despite the 1 - 0 loss to Villa last weekend, and booted 13 shots on goal, but just couldn't find the frame often enough. They should have no issue getting Jonathas and Fajr moving around the box to tally home a goal, even two.

    We know Bilbao can score, having done it 13 of the last 15 matches played in all competitions, so we can count on them helping the cause. The Over 2.5 is the offer, and the +120 on the action, looks even better.

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    Eibar vs Getafe

    3-Way: 1: Eibar +250 Away ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Getafe +130 Home

    Spread: Eibar +0.5 -160 ; Getafe -0.5 +130

    Total 2.5: Over +120 ; Under -140

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Need we say more about the fate of Eibar in the second half?

    It was predicted by us at Diamond, week in and week out, and the fade of Eibar did us well this campaign.

    Now we get another opportunity to chase a +130 line to fade the club who is just about out of the league now, so the Getafe 3-Way line goes as the recommendation in this one.

    Celta De Vigo vs Valencia

    3-Way: 1: Vigo +490 Away ; X: +345 Draw ; 2: Valencia -110 Home

    Spread: Vigo +1 -130 ; Valencia -1 -110

    Total 3: Over -120 ; Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    The Vigo campaign is as finished as it could be, because even if they were to finish ahead of the three clubs above them in the table, it would come as no real significant advantage, so they can simply go out and enjoy some football on aSunday.

    Valencia has to still finish their business, because 73 points with two matches remaining could see them finish in any of the top three through fifth positions at the end of the campaign. The difference between third and fifth, is third place is a Champions League group stage entry, while fifth position is a Europa League group stage entry.

    They have the five spot in hand at worst, so something is guaranteed to come in the European club competition of some sort next year, but if they can make up the four points on Atletico, they are in C.L group stage. Atletico has Granada to finish out, so we can assume the fourth spot is the goal to maintain, and they do control their own fate for the four that has C.L qualification stage entry.

    At least we covered any possibility, Because Futbol, you know.

    Valencia will likely score all three of those goals that would push the Over 3, and Vigo will not likely be shutout this weekend, as 3 - 0 just doesn't feel like what we can expect to see here, so the Over 3, and the Valencia -1 handicap both make good offers in this match.

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    Malaga vs Villarreal

    3-Way: 1: Malaga +305 Away ; X: +275 Draw ; 2: Villarreal +110 Home

    Spread: Malaga +0.5 -120 ; Villarreal -0.5 -110

    Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Villarreal is going to Europe, and it’s Europa League qualification that comes from the sixth spot. There is nothing left to do but prepare for next campaign, knowing they will be playing in La Liga, Europa, and the Copa Del Ray, so buckle up kids!

    Make light of it if you will, but a European campaign is at least that, and there are 14 other clubs in Spanish Primera that wouldn't mind saying they are as lucky. Last we checked, Sevilla could be on the verge of winning Europa League this year, so we know it is important to the league.

    We knew Malaga wouldn't have the steam for a big finish, and they can now simply look ahead to next year as well.

    We would still rather you play the +110 3-Way line on Villa at home, even with all things decided for the two clubs. Villa has only one win in their last six home games, including the Europa League encounter with Sevilla.

    That win just came against Elche last weekend in a 1 - 0 performance that didn't exactly knock anyone's socks off.

    Rayo Vallecano vs Cordoba

    3-Way: 1: Vallecano -135 Away ; X: +295 Draw ; 2: Cordoba +370 Home

    Spread: Vallecano -0.5 -135 ; Cordoba +0.5 +115

    Total 2.5: Over -145 ; Under +125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Vallecano's campaign is about done, and there is nothing special to be said about 46 points other than 'we survived'.

    Cordoba cannot say the same, as they are headed to Segunda Division for the 2015-16 campaign.

    How about a no bet situation, because there is simply no way to get in both these locker rooms and analyze the plan of attack for the last two fixtures other than let's play for three points, we would surmise. Either move to total to a straight 3 to get better than even money, or leave it alone entirely.

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    Almeria vs Sevilla

    3-Way: 1: Almeria +1000 Away ; X: +540 Draw ; 2: Sevilla -385 Home

    Spread: Almeria +1.5 +110 ; Sevilla -1.5 -130

    Total 3.5: Over -110 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Sevilla also has to deal with a Europa League semifinal second legon Thursdaywith Fiorentina, then travel back to Spain to take on Almeriaon Sunday.It’s Sevilla's last home match of the campaign and they will likely be celebrating a Europa League finals appearance, if they can manage to hold the 3 - 0 aggregate in their tie with the Viola, which came from the first leg in Spain last week.

    Almeria is not going to give much of a fight, while their defense continues to be a complete mess.

    This total at 3.5 is set rather high, with the line setters revealing they expect a resounding home win, with the -130 on the home handicap -1.5 line as well.

    We are going to hope they told us too much, and grab this Over 3.5 at-110, expecting that big win to finish out the home side of the campaign for Sevilla.

    Real Madrid vs Espanyol

    3-Way: 1: Madrid -250 Away ; X: +400 Draw ; 2: Espanyol +700 Home

    Spread: Madrid -1 -150 ; Espanyol +1 +120

    Total 3: Over -105 ; Under -125

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Carlo Ancelotti is the suspension we spoke of in the entry, as he will sit out the last two matches of the campaign. Clapping gestures towards the referee, Carlos Clos Gomez, both during and after the match against Valencia were the crimes, and the judge said 'two matches banned' is the fine.

    Worthy call? Well, why not add to the media downpour we have seen for months with the club, and now the loss to Juventus in Champions League fresh on everyone's mind to boot.

    This weekend’s goal is four points to make up on Barcelona, which we can almost already hand away anyway, since Barca simply needs a result in their last two to clinch the title. Espanyol helped us in the continuing fade of Eibar last weekend, and it is tough to know how this club will handle Real, even at home.

    Real Madrid has not lost to Espanyol in the last 16 meetings, dating back to October of 2007 as the last time Espanyol beat Real.

    We might see three goals in a half hour, as Madrid is certainly going to cruise, even with a backup or two scattered in the lineup. This is no ordinary bench mind you, and this should be a wide open affair early no matter who plays.

    The Over 3 is the call at a reasonable -105.

    Granada vs Real Sociedad

    3-Way: 1: Granada +255 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Sociedad +115 Home

    Spread: Granada +0.5 -135 ; Sociedad -0.5 +115

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    What a way to end the round, with yet another total coming as a suggestion.

    Granada simply makes you want to play harder, because you see so many weaknesses that it is too tough to sit back and wait for them to do something.

    Sociedad will score in their final home match of the campaign, giving their fans some goodbyes and what have you, likely twice in fact.

    The both to score prop is listed in the -170's at many outlets, and we expect them both to find two, in what could be a 2 - 2 draw in all reality.

    End your weekend with an easy Over 2.5 play, likely to hit the board by the hour mark.

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