Spain - La Liga Week 30 Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

  • Monday, April 6th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Round 30 in La Liga kicks off early in the week, with a round of matches sandwiched between two weekends. With round 29 to be completedon Monday, we see three matches taking placeon Tuesday, four on Wednesday, and this round wrapping upon Thursday.

    We will then turn around quickly with round 31 starting this weekend, so each club has three fixtures to play in about 10 days. The dominance at the top of the table was clear in round 29, as the top seven clubs all came out of their matches with some type of result, but the bottom six clubs all suffered defeats.

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    Real Madrid was certainly ready to quiet the media over the weekend. With a resounding victory and five goals poured in from Ronaldo, they completed a 9 - 1 thumping of Granada and increased his chances of taking home the Pichichi Trophy.

    Amazingly, while Real Madrid won 9 - 1, Barcelona struggled with Celta Vigo, but their 1 - 0 win was enough to give both clubs three points and keep their four-point lead in the table.

    Our featured match of the weekend is at San Mamés, where Athletic Bilbao hosts Villarreal. It’s the only matchup with two clubs in the top eight of the table, as we have an extremely lopsided schedule this weekend.

    With everyone having to regroup quickly for a mid-week round of fixtures, let's get to the matches and see what we can suggest along the way.

    Tuesday, April 7- 3 Matches

    Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

    3-Way: 1: Sociedad +1000 Away ; X: +410 Draw ; 2: Atl Madrid -320 Home

    Spread: Sociedad +1.5 -115 ; Atl Madrid -1.5 -105

    Total 2.5: Over -110 ; Under -110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well, we can now put to rest the struggles that we went through when we suggested Atletico. We have predicted the exact score of their last two outings and obviously cashed both tickets along the way.

    At the same token, if you caught the match with Cordoba you know that they got outplayed pretty badly. The one thing that Cordoba has struggled with all year came to light again, as they make finding the net look like trying to walk across water.

    Atletico had no problem letting Cordoba keep the ball for as long as they wanted, knowing that when it came to getting in the box and creating any real chances, it was simply not going to happen.

    Sociedad did a decent job of salvaging a point in Malaga, after being down 1 - 0 early in the second half, and equalizing with about six minutes left in regulation time, and has now gotten four straight results which will keep them right in the middle of the table.

    We find ourselves wanting to suggest another Under with Atletico, being that they really are not immensely talented up front, and all they can seem to do is defend and not much else. We mentioned it would be 2 - 0 their last two times out and it was, so we might as well expect a similar result here and suggest the Under 2.5 at -110.

    Malaga vs Eibar

    3-Way: 1: Malaga +140 Away ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Eibar +230 Home

    Spread: Malaga Pk -145 ; Eibar Pk +125

    Total 2: Over -115 ; Under -105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    I don't think we could enjoy success fading Eibar in the second half of the campaign any more than we have, and yet again it worked out just fine for us last weekend.Malaga let an opportunity to seize three points last weekend and let Sociedad find a late goal to end up with a home draw, but here we travel to Eibar and know that story by now.

    As much as we would like to suggest the Pk on Malaga here, that -145 is not going to happen at that price, so we simply have to hope Malaga understands that they are facing a club that has completely fallen apart.

    Malaga at +140 3-Way will be the only option we have to suggest.

    Sevilla vs Levante

    3-Way: 1: Sevilla -120 Away ; X: +260 Draw ; 2: Levante +360 Home

    Spread: Sevilla -0.5 -120 ; Levante +0.5 +100

    Total 2.5: Over +100 ; Under -120

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Sevilla's defense has been outstanding as of late, and that has made it tough to predict their totals because they are also scoring two or three goals a game. Their match with Bilbao last weekend was put away early, as Sevilla got out to an early 2 - 0 lead, and then simply sat back and finished the job.

    Levante put four goals in the net against Almeria and climbed out of the relegation battle at least for now, but we know those three points are not exactly seen as a comfortable cushion. Amazingly, in the last seven meetings, Levante has 3 wins and 4 draws against Sevilla, and these two played to a 1 - 1 on the front leg of the campaign.

    We are attempting one last Over with Sevilla, as it has been tough to catch those calls for us, but Levante knows they can play with this club, so hopefully they do and we see, at worst, a 2 - 1 score line to cash this Over 2.5 at even money.

    Wednesday, April 8- 4 Matches

    Almeria vs Barcelona

    3-Way: 1: Almeria +3500 Away ; X: +1180 Draw ; 2: Barcelona -2000 Home

    Spread: Almeria +3.5 -110 ; Barcelona -3.5 -110

    Total 4.5: Over +105 ; Under -125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Plenty was made about Barcelona struggling against Vigo over the weekend, but most of that was because Real won 9 - 1, and Ronaldo scored five goals.Most predicted that Real's resounding win would push Barcelona to go out and score a ton of goals to take their own headlines away from the Madrid win, but that was not the case.

    However, let's keep in mind that in the table a 1 - 0 win or 9 - 1 win has the same effect, which comes with three points no matter the final score, and that suits Barcelona fine.

    We know that Almeria will not be able to match what Vigo did over the weekend, and even if Barca is pacing themselves knowing they have much bigger fish to fry in Champions league later in the month, this should be seen as a foregone conclusion that another three points will be going to Barcelona.

    Now it’s a matter of prices, because the handicap of -3.5 is up there of course, and the home fans at Camp Nou will certainly expect them to out on a show, especially if Levante can score four goals against Almeria as they did over the weekend.

    Maybe this will be where Barca answers the 9 - 1 Madrid result, and having Almeria makes that much easier for us to recommend the -3.5 handicap on Barcelona here.

    Cordoba vs Dep La Coruna

    3-Way: 1: Cordoba +430 Away ; X: +270 Draw ; 2: Deportivo -140 Home

    Spread: Cordoba +0.5 +120 ; Deportivo -0.5 -140

    Total 2: Over -145 ; Under +125

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Did anyone else hear that? Oh, sorry, that must have been the snoring we heard in the background, because this match has 0 - 0 written all over it, as it was when they met for the first time earlier in the year.

    No need to go crazy breaking down last weekend's results or anything else that would pertain to the how and why this match will come in Under the 2. So it’s exactly where we are going here, especially at +125 and expecting nothing to happen at Riazor.

    Celta Vigo vs Granada

    3-Way: 1: Vigo +135 Away ; X: +220 Draw ; 2: Granada +230 Home

    Spread: Vigo Pk -150 ; Granada Pk +130

    Total 2: Over -130 ; Under +110

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well, Celta gave Barcelona a fight, but Granada?Ok, not so much of a fight, and giving up 9 goals to anyone will completely deflate any club, no matter when it happens during the year.

    How does anyone suggest an Under with Granada, when we can clearly see that they are coming into this match wondering what the hell just hit them, as Madrid humiliated them like never before.

    Vigo did a fine job of holding a less than enthusiastic Barca club from walking all over them, but bottom line is that they lost, so while they can take a positive from knowing they did at least hold their own, they did walk away with nothing to show for it in the table and that's where it matters most.

    This Over 2 is a mildly comfortable -130, although we don't love the price, it is more than worthy of the action, since we do expect these two to have some success scoring.

    Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

    3-Way: 1: Madrid -410 Away ; X: +580 Draw ; 2: Vallecano +1000 Home

    Spread: Madrid -2 +100 ; Vallecano +2 -120

    Total 3.5: Over -130 ; Under +110

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well, if the critics and media needed a big result from Madrid then we can say a 9 - 1 victory over the weekend over Granada might at least shut everyone up for a few days. We do hope you enjoyed our offer on the total in that one as well, as we moved that line to Over 4, and cashed one of the easiest tickets we have recommended this year.

    So, now there is no doubt that the naysayers will still come out to say they were not impressed because it was only Granada that they beat up on, but we are not one of those sites that share those thoughts.

    If a -2 handicap is all the line setters are going to ask, than we are more than happy to oblige, and expect Madrid to have another party at the expense of Vallecano.

    Thursday, April 9- 3 Matches

    Featured Match Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Valencia +195

    Bilbao +150

    Draw +230


    Valencia Pk +110

    Bilbao Pk -130

    Total 2.5:

    Over +110

    Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Bilbao's run is over, and what a run it was, getting themselves all the way to eighth in the table after a poor start to the campaign. Now they have to rebound to face a Valencia club who comes off a disappointing scoreless draw over the weekend in a match they were expected to at least put a better effort than they did.

    Both clubs have been sound defensively lately, and we even saw Bilbao beat Real 1 - 0 just a few weeks ago. After seeing Valencia come out flat last weekend, we might expect a low-scoring match here as well.

    Move this total to the Under 2 and 2.5 to get closer to even money, because we do not see the three goals coming here that would crash the action.

    Getafe vs Elche

    3-Way: 1: Getafe +250 Away ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Elche +130 Home

    Spread: Getafe Pk +135 ; Elche Pk -160

    Total 2: Over -105 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    These two have a massive history of Unders, with 9 of the last 10 meetings coming in below the 2.5, which includes a 0 - 0 match in November.

    With that said, we see a straight 2 on this total, and both teams have actually scored in 10 of their 12 all-time meetings, including their friendly in 2011. Now of course, we are going back to the 1999 season here, so we know that all of those results came so long ago that it won't have much significance, but was at least worth pointing out.

    These are desperate times for each club, with Getafe hoping to simply stay afloat and maintain top flight status, and Elche being only two points clear of the final relegation spot in the table.

    This Over 2 at -105 is going on the board this weekend, because there is no room to sit back and settle for draws at this point. That Getafe Pk at +135 sure looks worthy of a play as well, with some value there to be had, so hopefully the Azulones come out of Stadio Martinez Valero with a result, as we put that on the board as well. Essentially, a 1 - 1 draw would simply return the action on both plays, so we have no issue with that.

    Espanyol vs Villarreal

    3-Way: 1: Espanyol +600 Away ; X: +300 Draw ; 2: Villarreal -185 Home

    Spread: Espanyol +1 -115 ; Villarreal -1 -105

    Total 2.5: Over +105 ; Under -125

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Both clubs come off scoreless draws over the weekend, and Espanyol has seen that result the last two times they have taken the pitch. So now that they get together at El Madrigal, why would anything change?

    We do not see it, and this should be another uneventful, low-scoring game that the fans leave wondering what they paid for.

    The Under 2.5 at -125 is our final play of the mid-week fixtures, so we will see you again for the weekend matches coming up!

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