Spain La Liga Week 28 Real Madrid vs Barcelona

  • Thursday, March 19th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: Two words sum up Round 28 in La Liga this weekend: El Clasico! Real Madrid heads to Camp Nou to try and slow down Barcelona who has a grasp on the top spot in the Primera League table, and will not likely give it up easily. We can throw out the table and we can throw out the history, because these two do not like each other.

    It is as big a rivalry as we have in the beautiful game. There is no telling how many football fans will be watching either beINSports, with Ray Hudson making the call this weekend, or finding their way to some pub or restaurant to sit amongst fans and friends. Either way, all eyes will be on El Clasico. Naturally, that is not the only match of the weekend, but it sure makes it tough to discuss the other 9 matches we have.

    We will try our best to put it aside, but be sure to catch the weekly World Tour Soccer Podcast, where my guest is Ian Joy from beINsports. The round beginson Friday, with Valencia headed to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero to face Elche.

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    Five matches take placeon Saturday, but the attention will beon Sunday,when one of the four matches on the schedule might see the most attention, as we know.

    Let's get to the pitch, and we hope you enjoy El Clasico, however you get to watch it this weekend.

    Friday, March 20- 1 Match

    Valencia vs Elche

    3-Way: 1: Valencia -105 Away ; X: +240 Draw ; 2: Elche +320 Home

    Spread: Valencia -0.5 -105 ; Elche +0.5 -115

    Total 2.5: Over +125 ; Under -145

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Before we get to El Clasico, Valencia looks to keep pace with the two league leaders and can pull within four points of Real Madrid with a big away win.

    They have the best home record in La Liga, and are one of only three teams to walk out of Atletico's grounds with points, with the last time being when they were away from home two weekends ago. Overall, Valencia has not been strong away from Mestalla, however, with 5W - 5D and 4L in 14 road fixtures this campaign. These points are as important as they can be, since they have the opportunity to gain ground on either Barcelona or Madrid or even both if the two draw, so 3 points has to be taken this weekend for Valencia.

    Elche is only 2 points clear of their own relegation battle, and has no room to let home points slip away, although they are tied with the most losses at home in the league.

    This is another one of those spots where we think that if this match were in Mestalla, this line would be uber obnoxious in favor of Valencia. If the line setters want to put that much strength in what home field advantage is supposed to bring, Elche hasn't used it all season, so what makes today any different?

    Nothing. Valencia 3-Way -105 works for us in this spot.

    Saturday, March 21- 5 Matches

    Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao

    3-Way: 1: Almeria +640 Away ; X: +340 Draw ; 2: Bilbao -215 Home

    Spread: Almeria +1 +100 ; Bilbao -1 -120

    Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We took advantage of Bilbao again last weekend, cashing the +160 Pk on Bilbao to get a result against Vigo, and they did us good. There is no story to give about the position in the table for Bilbao, since they probably don't see the 13 points that separates them from European contention as motivation to get results.

    Almeria may be sitting 16th in the table, but that means they are out of the relegation zone. There is a 3-way tie for that third spot to get demoted, and Almeria is one of the clubs in the group. They've gone five straight without a win, and have not scored a goal in the last four, and it’s difficult to find three points when you can't score even a single goal to help your cause.

    Honestly, we will just hope Bilbao continues playing like a club who is in the finals of the Copa Del Ray and looking to continue the success. Riding hot teams at the right time is a big part of cashing betting tickets, and until Bilbao taketh away, we will still giveth to them! The -1 at -120 is the play on the home side, with way too much juice to simply win.

    Getafe vs Atletico Madrid

    3-Way: 1: Getafe +1000 Away ; X: +460 Draw ; 2: Atl Madrid -350 Home

    Spread: Getafe +1.5 -105 ; Atl Madrid -1.5 -115

    Total 2.5: Over -115 ; Under -105

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well they did it, and now Atletico will again be appearing in the Champions League quarterfinals. It wasn't easy, and it was actually as ugly a series as we have seen in Europe so far, with a 1 - 0 home win to make up the 0 - 1 aggregate and basically letting Bayer Leverkusen miss penalty kicks to move on. Bottom line, they move on, so now they get a Getafe club struggling for any consistency.

    Atletico is 6 - 0 - 2 in the last 8 against Getafe in all domestic and cup matches since 2011, and amazingly enough, Getafe has not score a single goal in any of those 8 meetings. Yes, that means 8 straight clean sheets held against them. That’s pretty obnoxious, right? That made us make sure the line setters recognized it, and they do, showing the Both to Score prop bet at -240 towards the 'no' side. That is quite a scoreless drought if there ever was one, so how does Getafe plan on doing something about it? Catching a tired club could help, since Atletico did just play 120 minutes with a shootout to boot, so Atletico certainly has to regroup quickly.

    We would love to see the streak snapped and take a chance with the Over here, but can we? On paper, Atletico should run circles around this club for the most part, and we would expect Diego Simeone to put a quality line-up on the pitch, tired or not. They just did give up third place in the table, and Sevilla and Villarreal are not that far behind them either.

    Let's take the handicap -1.5, because Atletico should take this match 2 - 0 at worst, but we have not had much success when we expect them to be the more dominant club, so let's see if we can turn that around this weekend.

    Eibar vs Granada

    3-Way: 1: Eibar +360 Away ; X: +220 Draw ; 2: Granada -105 Home

    Spread: Eibar +0.5 -115 ; Granada -0.5 -105

    Total 2: Over +100 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We can only start a preview so many times stating that fading Eibar is the best thing to do right now. Even though the Barcelona match last weekend looked good on paper with a 2 - 0 loss, we know Barcelona was preparing for both Manchester City and El Clasico, and were not about to turn on the jets to kill the struggling club.

    That environment was cool though, with 5,000 people in the stands and close to that in the surrounding neighborhood of homes overlooking the pitch.

    Granada is in their own relegation battle, which show them four points from the cellar and three points needed to make up to sneak their way out.

    However, facing Eibar is not going to be that easy, and more than likely it did give the team a renewed confidence. At least they can say that they held their own against mighty Barca last weekend, even if it wasn't the worldly event they thought it would be in the city.

    There is no way we can leave a straight 2 on the total sitting there unnoticed. If we see a 1 - 1 match here, who the hell would be shocked? Now, we need someone to find that third piece of the net to cash the ticket, but to get our money back from a 1 - 1 here at even money makes plenty of sense, so the Over 2 at +100 makes the board.

    Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano

    3-Way: 1: Malaga +185 Away ; X: +245 Draw ; 2: Vallecano +150 Home

    Spread: Malaga Pk +100 ; Vallecano Pk -120

    Total 2.5: Over -110 ; Under -110

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Malaga is still a mystery wrapped in an enigma, and figuring out this club this year has been difficult. They beat Barcelona, followed it up with another win, and then lost to Granada. Now they come off another win last weekend against bottom feeder Cordoba.

    Vallecano gave up their 50th goal of the campaign last weekend, and only Levante has been worse with 51 GA.

    The line setters seem to be content in offering the -110 on either side of the total, and we tend to think we will see a 3 - 2 type of match here. The two have scored a ton of goals in their last six meetings, all six coming in Over the 2.5, so why not see if they play each other the same way they always seem to lately?

    Over 2.5 goes in the books at -110.

    Celta De Vigo vs Levante

    3-Way: 1: Vigo +125 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Levante +240 Home

    Spread: Vigo Pk -165 ; Levante Pk +140

    Total 2: Over -140 ; Under +120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    We just mentioned that only Levante and Rayo Vallecano have given up 50 or more goals this campaign, and Levante made losing 2 - 0 last weekend to Madrid look as boring as the match sounds. They didn't put a single shot on goal, but did at least make a realistic chance or two in the loss, but Madrid coasted, as you might expect a club to do with their biggest match of the second half of the campaign on deck in El Clasico.

    We know that Vigo got faded last weekend, and Bilbao cashed our lovely +160 ticket as a result, so what do they have to offer this weekend? This total is too pricey, so move it to the handicap Over 2 and 2.5 to get closer to even money. We will expect to see the 3 goals to completely cash the ticket, and would not argue with anyone who moved it to 2.5 and cashed a nicer ticket.

    Sunday, March 22- 4 Matches

    Featured Match Real Madrid vs Barcelona

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Madrid +365

    Barcelona -145

    Draw +325


    Madrid +0.5 +125

    Barcelona -0.5 -145

    Total 3.5:

    Over +110

    Under -130

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well you could certainly see the class in the Champions League win for Barcelonaon Wednesday, taking the aggregate 3 - 1 win in the tie with Manchester City. We could see it even more when, after the whistle, the two came off the pitch showing the respect they had for each other. They walked off almost like the NHL does at the end of a playoff series, shaking the hands of everyone in line to acknowledge each clubs’ effort in their European campaigns.

    In the meantime, Real Madrid has also been waiting for this weekend and are almost glad Barcelona will be on shorter rest, because Round 28 means El Clasico! It is that time we all look forward to, as we have since March rang in, knowing well in advance we would finally be seeing this battle.

    Real Madrid’s locker room is probably as delicate as it’s been all campaign. There’s Ronaldo’s relationship issue, a coaching discussion about one of the best managers in Europe, and a relinquished lead in the table that they had held since October.

    Real Madrid certainly knows that if they walk out of Camp Nou with a loss, they will be four-points behind Barca with 10 matches left after the weekend. Of course both clubs are still alive in Champions League and are headed to the quarterfinals of Europe's premier club competition. Although they moved on last week in less than convincing fashion, losing 4 - 3 at home to Schalke, they carried a 2 - 0 away goals lead into the second leg.

    It may seem stiff to see -145 on the home side at Camp Nou, but it would be hard to expect much of a gracious offer for the club simply playing better football, and yet having less issues surrounding them. With that said, on the other side we see Madrid sitting there with a +365 to win this match, and you can go look for the last time you were getting +365 on Real Madrid, no matter the circumstance or competition.

    There is way too much value to look for this Madrid club to put the critics to sleep and we expect Ronaldo to step up in a big match again and shut everyone up.... for another week at least.

    Madrid 3-Way line is the play, because that price is worth it no matter how convinced we could be that Barcelona will easily walk out of Camp Nou with a win. That lovely expression, 'That is why they play the game', is simply reason enough to test the water.

    Espanyol vs Dep La Coruna

    3-Way: 1: Espanyol +185 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: Deportivo +160 Home

    Spread: Espanyol Pk +100 ; Deportivo Pk -120

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Deportivo has been held to a clean sheet in four of their last league matches, and has only one point to show over that span of matches. Espanyol has also been kept off the score sheet in their last 3 outings, including their match in the Copa Del Ray.

    This Under 2 at +115 seems almost like a gift from the line setters, because we don't see a damn thing going on here that makes this match worth watching. Expect nothing and, hopefully, we get nothing. Under is the play.

    Sevilla vs Villarreal

    3-Way: 1: Sevilla +245 Away ; X: +250 Draw ; 2: Villarreal +115 Home

    Spread: Sevilla +0.5 -135 ; Villarreal -0.5 +115

    Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    So we meet again!Europa League competitors, Sevilla and Villarreal, played last week in their Round of 32 tie, and they meetThursday again before we play this match. This post was submitted before theThursdaymatch in Europa League, but we know Sevilla took a 3 - 1 aggregate lead home for that encounter.

    Assuming they will both score in that match and then face off here for the third time in 10 days, this Over 2.5 will likely make our board again.We did this with Sevilla, when they played Espanyol in the Copa, and it worked then too, so why not go back to the well and expect these two to score on each other for another 90 minutes?

    Cordoba vs Real Sociedad

    3-Way: 1: Cordoba +535 Away ; X: +265 Draw ; 2: Sociedad -155 Home

    Spread: Cordoba +0.5 +135 ; Sociedad -0.5 -155

    Total 2: Over -135 ; Under +115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Why would Cordoba win this weekend? They haven't done it sinceJanuary 12, so what makes this the magic weekend? Did they suddenly figure out something that they are doing wrong? Which is pretty much everything, but this -155 is out of range for a realistic betting option. Would much rather see you move this to the -1 handicap, so as long as they win we are safe, and hopefully they can stretch it to two. Not much more to see there, so we hope you have a good betting weekend!

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