Soccer Odds - German Bundesliga Week 21 Fixtures Featuring Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

  • Thursday, February 12th, 2015

    By  Ej Garr


    Soccer Betting: We begin Round 21 of Bundesliga with everyone taking stock on how they have started the back half of the campaign. After each club started the new year with 3 matches in 10 days, it is now time to evaluate the short term, and prepare for the long stretch ahead.

    We are seeing the players who came over in the winter transfer window starting to make an impact throughout the league, with Andre Schurrle and Kevin de Bruyne carrying Wolfsburg to within 8 points of league leaders Bayern Munich.

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    Wolfsburg finds themselves in our featured match of the weekend, as they travel to BayArena to take on Bayer Leverkusen. At the moment, both clubs sit in the top 6 of the table, good enough for European qualification of some sort for next year, but there is plenty of football left to be played before we get near that point.

    The round beginsFridayat Aduna Park, with Dortmund taking on struggling Mainz as they try to gain momentum from a big win over the weekend.

    We saw powerhouse Bayern get back on track last weekend, and they are one of 6 matches taking place on the Saturdayslate, when they host Hamburg, who are carrying their own 2-match win streak into the weekend.

    There are plenty of quality matches all throughout the round, so let's break it down and get you prepared for your weekend in German Bundesliga.

    Friday, February 13- 1 Match

    Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund

    3-Way: 1: Mainz +830 Away ; X: +420 Draw ; 2: Dortmund -300 Home

    Spread: Mainz +1.5 -115 ; Dortmund -1.5 -105

    Total 3: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Dortmund played like the club most of us thought we would see much earlier than we did. Of course, they did completely control their match with Freiburg, while finding 3 big away points they desperately needed.

    Let's not forget that Dortmund also has the grand assignment of taking on Juventus in Italy, for a big home and home series in Champions League. The first leg begins onFebruary 24.

    Dortmund can catch Mainz in the table at 22 points with a home win here, and we know Mainz has only one win away from Coface Arena on the campaign.

    The line setters are certainly making us aware that they have no doubt Dortmund is taking 3 points and throwing a -300 on the home side to win. But we know there is no value there to be had from a betting perspective. Dortmund should see this as an amazing opportunity to take what is in front of them, because opportunities like -300 favoritism and an assuming easy victory, cannot be left to waste.

    We are suggesting the Over 3, expecting, at worst, a 2 - 1 match. As we check the Both to Score prop, we see -125 on the Yes side of the action, and we concur they will both score to obtain at least the 3 needed to push the ticket. Let's hope they find either an equalizer to make it 2 - 2, or a late mishap to make it 3 - 1 to take home the cheese.

    Saturday, February 14- 6 Matches

    Featured Match Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

    3-Way 1x2 Lines:

    Wolfsburg +215

    Leverkusen +130

    Draw +245


    Wolfsburg Pk +125

    Leverkusen Pk -145

    Total 2.5:

    Over -135

    Under +115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Leverkusen and Wolfsburg are both alive in their European competitions, with Leverkusen facing Atletico Madrid in their Champions League campaign, and Wolfsburg will be taking on Sporting Lisbon in Europa League next week.

    Leverkusen took 4 points out the 9 possible in this quick 10-day stretch we just encountered, and come off a loss with Bremen 2 - 1 in which they were down 2 - 0 within a half hour. They really only had the one good chance they scored on to make it 2 - 1 in the end. We know this because they only took 2 official shots on goal, and happened to score on one of them. Last we checked, that is not a formula for success, because if you ain't a shootin', you ain't a scorin'!

    Whether Wolfsburg is home or away, you know they would be more than content to see you put up two shots on goal, because they are throwing the gamut at you for 90 minutes. Remember though, what happens in previous matches does not always lead you to what can be expected, so past results in other matches are not a concern here. Although the last 3 times these two have met, we have not seen less than 4 goals scored between them.

    We are going to hope the how-you-play-each-other situation outweighs that Leverkusen needs to open up the offense and press if they want to give their home fans something to get up about. Even though this total is 2.5 and -135, that is nothing to ask for a 2 - 1 type match here, so the Over has to be the reasonable play here.

    Koln vs Moenchengladbach

    3-Way: 1: Koln +450 Away ; X: +275 Draw ; 2: Gladbach -145 Home

    Spread: Koln +0.5 +125; Gladbach -0.5 -145

    Total 2.5: Over +110 ; Under -130

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Well, there are two sides of the story as to how Koln got their second half of the campaign started. On one side, after these last 3 matches, they did not give up a goal to anyone. The other side is that they didn't score in two of those matches either, and only managed 5 points for their efforts. Granted, 5 points is 5 points, and not a blemish in the L column, but if they had trouble scoring before they came here to Borussia Park, finding the net is not such an easy task.

    Gladbach has one loss at home in the campaign, and has only given up 10 goals here, but they too have been struggling to find the back of the net since we restarted the season.

    What else is there to see as an outcome except low scoring, since both clubs really have not found any semblance of success up front so far? Problem is, another -130 play just starts to add up, and juice is not our friend. We can't even take Gladbach just to win either at -145, so finding a value line to play with here really is not easy, unless we of course move something or find another play. Ahh, there it is, the first half Under 1, at a reasonable -120 makes sense, and if someone scores early? Well, so be it. Let's hope it's the only one.

    Hamburger vs Bayern Munich

    3-Way: 1: Hamburg +2650 Away ; X: +950 Draw ; 2: Bayern -1050 Home

    Spread: Hamburg +2.5 -105 ; Bayern -2.5 -115

    Total 3.5: Over -105 ; Under -115

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Bayern got back to their winning ways with a goal from Arjen Robben and a beautiful set piece strike from Alaba outside the 30. If you have not seen that video, check it out, it was quite a nice piece of craftsmanship to hit that spot that far out.

    Still, we see concerns for the Bayern fans, as their club is simply not the same club we saw through the first half of the year.It is hard to know what to take from Hamburg's three matches coming off the break, since they lost to Koln, and only beat Paderborn and Hannover.Naturally, the line setters are making us choose whether or not Bayern is going to get their offense back or not, because they set a -2.5 handicap on them, and a 3.5 on the total. It is bound to happen we suspect, but until they do, we are going to take the +2.5 on Hamburg at -105. At least they are scoring in the now, competition be it as it may, so hopefully they can keep us to a 3 - 1 type of match and we can cash our ticket on the doggie +2.5 handicap.

    Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim

    3-Way: 1: Stuttgart +285 Away ; X: +270 Draw ; 2: Hoffenheim -105 Home

    Spread: Stuttgart +0.5 -115 ; Hoffenheim -0.5 -105

    Total 3: Over +100 ; Under -120

    Analysis and Prediction:

    These two came out of the second half gate in slow motion, as only 1 point was found between the 6 matches these two competed in. Hoffenheim went 0 - 3, and Stuttgart went 0 - 2 - 1, finding that lone point mentioned.

    Hoffenheim now finds 5 clubs within a match’s shout, and they could suddenly go 0 - 4 out of the gate and give away all they accomplished in the first half of the campaign. Remember, they were in Europeans’ spots when the second half of the year kicked off, and now they have not only lost that, but are about to be even further out and looking deeper in the rabbit hole.

    How do you try to convince someone to make a play on this match? They have to live with someone saying ‘you blew that one didn't you.’ We are going to suggest the Under 3 at -120, but this is as much a coin toss as we could possibly see, so please, if you must bet it, bet it with minimum funds. These two are just playing terrible football, period.

    Augsburg vs Werder Bremen

    3-Way: 1: Augsburg +175 Away ; X: +240 Draw ; 2: Bremen +160 Home

    Spread: Augsburg Pk +100 ; Bremen Pk -120

    Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100

    Analysis and Prediction:

    This match almost has that feel of possibly being chosen as our feature of the weekend. Augsburg comes off a difficult draw. After leading at home 2 - 0, they surrendered the lead with only one pass in the 70th minute to rip their hearts out. Not to mention that they gave up the first goal with only seconds left in the first half. Both goals really never should have happened, but they were lucky to end up 2 - 0, because they never really mounted much an effort after gaining the lead.

    Now, we combine two clubs who can certainly score and, as we have seen, can just as easily be scored on, so it is not rocket science to figure out what that leads to. It is only -120, and it is that Over 2.5, because we surely expect 3 goals to hit the back of the net at Weserstadion this weekend.

    Schalke vs Frankfurt

    3-Way: 1: Schalke +205 Away ; X: +270 Draw ; 2: Frankfurt +125 Home

    Spread: Schalke Pk +125 ; Frankfurt Pk -145

    Total 3: Over -105 ; Under -115

    Analysis and Prediction:

    Frankfurt was the club doing all that coming back in the Augsburg match that we mentioned, and came off two draws in two totally different ways. After starting the second half of the year with a 4 - 1 embarrassing loss to Freiburg, they were only minutes away from taking 3 points from Wolfsburg, and had to settle for a draw.

    Now they come off making up a 2 - 0 deficit to a club in the upper portion of the table with Augsburg. Schalke took a 1 - 0 lead early last weekend, and then we all practically fell asleep for the next 80 minutes. Schalke certainly was the aggressor, and deserved the result, as unconvincing as it may have been. Schalke has that little something that Frankfurt lacks, and until they Frankfurt finds it, we will gladly try to catch the +125 on the Draw no Bet Pk on Schalke to get some kind of result away from home.

    Sunday, February 15- 2 Matches

    Freiburg vs Hertha Berlin

    3-Way: 1: Freiburg +260 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; 2: Berlin +115 Home

    Spread: Freiburg +0.5 -135 ; Berlin -0.5 +115

    Total 2.5: Over +115 ; Under -135

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    Analysis and Prediction:

    Berlin was actually carrying a pretty nice home record until the recent stretch of results. They have now lost 4 of their last 5 at Olympiastadion, and their away record is certainly not going to be enough to keep them in top tier football. Freiburg is in the relegation zone for a reason, and it won't get any easier with 5 of their next 6 matches against clubs in the upper portion of the table.

    Both of these clubs were held scoreless in 2 of the 3 matches they played out of the second half gate, and we don't expect much scoring here either. It may have been 2 - 2 in the first meeting, but that was a much different time in the campaign. We almost have to settle for the -135 to stay under, so maybe consider the 1 - 1, 0 - 0 type draw expectation as well.

    Paderborn vs Hannover

    3-Way: 1: Paderborn +340 Away ; X: +270 Draw ; 2: Hannover -120 Home

    Spread: Paderborn +0.5 +100 ; Hannover -0.5 -120

    Total 2.5: Over -125 ; Under +105

    Analysis and Prediction:

    The only reason Paderborn has one point out of their last three matches is because they finally stopped someone from scoring. They have not scored a single goal out of the second half gate, so the only way to hope to seek points if you can't score is to hope for a draw. When you play football hoping to play 0 - 0 matches, things are going in a bad direction.

    Hannover has also lost 2 of their first 3 matches off the break, and have a lone point over that span with a 1 - 1 result with Mainz sandwiched between the two losses.This is yet another situationwhere you have to settle for some juice, with the Over 2.5 being listed at -125. This should be a 2 - 1 type of match, and the Both to Score prop price of -150 tells us we should see a goal from each of them. Let’s hope they find the third so we can cash the ticket.

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