Sunday’s race is really a match race between Edwards and Stewart. With only three points separating the two drivers it is the closest race in the Chase since NASCAR changed the format in 2004. "It's fun when we're first and second in the points and we're running first and second on the racetrack the last two weeks," Stewart said. "It shows why we're both in this position.
Carl Edwards 5-1
The defending champion of this race is Edwards and based on recent history he has a good chance to win again. He also won this race in 2008 and Roush cars have won six of the last seven races as Greg Biffle won in 2004, 2005 and 2006 while Matt Kenseth won in 2007. The only driver to break the Roush winning streak in this race was Denny Hamlin who won in 2009. Edwards as the best overall numbers of any driver at Homestead with two wins, four top fives and six top 10s in seven starts.
Tony Stewart 5-1
Stewart has had success at Homestead but he has not won this race since 2000. He does have two wins; three top fives and six top ten finishes in 12 starts at the track.
The Rest
If you are going to take a shot with anyone other than Edwards or Stewart then the choice is probably Jimmie Johnson who has NASCAR odds of 7.5-1. J.J. has not won at Homestead but he does have seven top 10 finishes in ten races. Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth are listed at 8-1 while Jeff Gordon is 10-1. Harvick could be a contender on Sunday as he has five top five finishes and eight top ten finishes at Homestead-Miami.
When you consider NASCAR Ford betting you don’t have to take the driver who wins the pole. Only twice has the polesitter won this race. It does, however, help to start in a top 10 starting position as nine of the twelve race winners have started from a top 10 spot.
