Alabama -1, total 40
The Crimson Tide are favored in this game which is somewhat surprising considering Alabama lost earlier this season at home to LSU. The Tigers went unbeaten this season and there was no question they were the most dominant team in college football. The Tigers were 12th best in the country in points per game and they were second in fewest points allowed.
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Higher Scoring This Time?
Earlier this season when the teams met it was a low scoring game that LSU won in overtime 9-6. While that game was low scoring it does not mean that Monday night’s game will play out the same way. Both Alabama and LSU have a lot of offensive talent and it could be that the game ends up going over the total. Alabama has Heisman finalist Trent Richardson who ran for 505 yards in the last three games while LSU has a very balanced attack led by quarterback Jordan Jefferson. "This could be a totally different type of game," said Alabama head coach Nick Saban, “There's so much opportunity for this game to play out completely different and have a completely different flavor than the first game."
Game Notes
Alabama leads the all-time series 45-25-5. The last five times the teams have played the games have been very close with each game being decided by nine points or less. Considering the trends when making BCS Championship picks we find that the Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Looking at the total, the Over is 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 bowl games. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Tigers last 8 games overall.