NCAA Lines - Percentages to Remember in March Madness Odds

  • Friday, March 15th, 2013

    By  Ken Williams


    March Madness Odds: The best time of the year in college hoops is here with the NCAA Tournament starting in a few days. Let’s look at some percentages to keep in mind as you make your picks.

    Taking the Points

    Did you know that if you bet every game and simply took the points each time you would probably do okay? Going back in history we find that if you took the points in every game in the NCAA Tournament you would have won about 53% of the time. You won’t get rich betting every single game but if you want to have a lot of action and not worry about handicapping then simply take the underdog every time.

    Winning Seeds

    The seeds get the most attention in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The best seeds to take are the #12 seeds as they cover the spread about 60% of the time. That makes sense since you will hear a lot about the 5-12 matchup and how the underdogs do well. The #8 seeds and the #10 seeds also have done well against the spread. The worst seeds have been the #14 seeds which cover about 39% of the time and the #7 seeds which are at about 41%.

    Round by Round Percentages

    If you can pick the straight up winner in the first round of the NCAA Tournament you will cover the spread about 70% of the time. Keep in mind though that it is not always easy to pick straight up winners in some of the matchups where the pointspread is small. The # 12 seed is the best in the first round as they cover about 62% of the time.

    In the second round the best seed is the #10 seed as they cover about 70% if they make it this far while the #8 seed also does well at near 70%. As the NCAA Tournament continues the favorites start to do better. In the Final Four, the favorites have more than held their own so keep that in mind as you look at the March Madness odds at Diamond sportsbook.